While the exact type of drone or missile used in the strike, as well as where it was launched, remains unclear, conflict monitoring experts say available evidence points to likely involvement by the Congolese armed forces.

According to Ladd Serwat, Africa senior analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the incident fits a broader pattern of aerial operations carried out by the Congolese military in the country’s volatile east.

“Several indicators point to likely involvement by the Congolese armed forces,” Serwat said, noting that the army accounts for the vast majority of recorded air and drone strikes in the region.

The incident highlights the increasing dangers faced by civilians and humanitarian workers in eastern Congo, where aerial warfare is becoming an increasingly common feature of the conflict.

Data compiled by ACLED shows that the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) has carried out most of the aerial strikes documented in eastern Congo since 2025. More than 60 such strikes have already been recorded in 2026, following a sharp increase in the final months of 2025.

Serwat said the recent strike "represent the most serious threat to Goma since it was overtaken and may indicate a broader push by the Congolese military to retake areas of North Kivu".

By contrast, fewer than five percent of strike incidents during the same period have been attributed to the March 23 Movement (M23), armed groups operating under the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), or the Rwanda Defence Force.

The area around Goma, capital of North Kivu Province, has become a major flashpoint in the conflict between Congolese government forces and M23 rebels, who control several strategic areas across the province.

Serwat noted that Congolese military air and drone operations have frequently targeted M23 positions and leadership figures in the region.

One such strike earlier this year near the Rubaya mining area reportedly killed a spokesperson linked to the M23-AFC alliance.

Recent developments appear to reinforce that pattern. On 7 March, FARDC forces carried out strikes near Mushaki, west of Goma. Around the same time, clashes were reported north of the city in the Virunga area between M23 fighters and local militias known as the Wazalendo.

“Taken together — the broader pattern of strike attribution, the recent escalation of FARDC aerial activity in North Kivu, and the proximity of recent fighting — these factors suggest a high likelihood of Congolese military involvement in the strike,” Serwat said.