Abraham Ename Minko, a Senior Researcher and Policy Analyst in Peace, Security, and Conflict Resolution, sees these threats are a “complex interplay of conventional and unconventional security challenges.”

Across the continent, according to him, both state and non-state actors are now using disinformation and economic pressure to destabilize societies and weaken the very institutions meant to protect them.

The stakes have never been higher for organizations like the African Union (AU) and ECOWAS.

As these hybrid tactics evolve, Ename Minko noted the gap between policy and practice remains wide, leaving many nations exposed to a new kind of warfare that thrives on structural weaknesses and socio-economic inequality.

The manipulation of information has become a weapon. In Nigeria, reading the research, the 2019 elections saw a surge of coordinated disinformation campaigns across social media, designed specifically to discredit opponents and sway voters.

“Foreign and domestic actors have manipulated digital platforms to spread false narratives and fuel ethnic divisions,” Ename Minko observed

This pattern also in Ethiopia, where digital propaganda deepened ethnic polarization and fueled violence during the Tigray conflict.

Violence and economic disruption

Groups like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have combined asymmetric warfare with sophisticated information operations to expand their influence, reads the Ename Minko research.

In Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, for example, insurgents linked to ISGS have not only conducted brutal attacks but have also engaged in economy, he mentioned.

“Insurgents... have also engaged in economic sabotage, disrupting liquefied natural gas projects that are crucial for the country’s economic development,” Minko noted.

This mix of physical brutality and economic disruption makes it nearly impossible for governments to respond using only a standard military playbook.

While the African Union and regional bodies have the blueprints for peace, he shows that they are often grounded by a lack of resources.

The African Standby Force (ASF), intended to be a rapid-response unit, has yet to become fully operational due to logistical, financial, and political constraints.

Instead, according to the research, the AU has relied on external actors such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) to fund its peacekeeping missions, leading to questions about the continent’s security autonomy.

The reliance on foreign money has created a “security autonomy” crisis. For years, missions like AMISOM in Somalia were heavily funded by the European Union.

Abraham Ename Minko learned that “the AU has relied on external actors such as the UN and the EU to fund its peacekeeping missions, leading to questions about the continent’s security autonomy.” When funding is cut, as it was for the transition mission in Somalia (ATMIS), the ability to fight back drops immediately.

While ECOWAS was praised for its 2017 intervention in the Gambia to uphold electoral democracy, its response to recent military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger has been inconsistent.

Minko points out that the withdrawal of Mali from the G5 Sahel in 2022, followed by Burkina Faso and Niger in 2023, has left the regional military cooperation in a fragile state.

“Many regional bodies operate in silos, leading to duplication of efforts and gaps in response mechanisms,” Minko explained.

The path to self-reliance

The solution, according to the research, lies in Africa funding its own peace. The AU Peace Fund was built for this exact purpose, yet it remains underfunded because member states are not contributing enough.

Minko suggests that establishing sustainable models, such as regional security levies or mandatory contributions, is the only way forward.

He believes that “increasing financial commitments... could enhance the continent’s ability to fund its security operations independently.”